The greek people could deny the debts like every souveran theoretically at any time

Although the vote on the "rescue package" Quickly canceled again, it did the market in mind that a democratic Souveran may rather go into the bankruptcy when continuing to build up

The daring plan of the Greek Prime Minister, the "Sovereign" The decision to take the decision of the EU program, the international lenders were able to pay attention to a very unpleasant fact in their view: the taxation of a democratic debtor state is asked whether the existing liabilities are to be actually rewarded is in the free Decision of the Souveran, to reject this by lust and mood.

This may be an inconcluded decision in the long term, but has a negative impairment, or a government is chosen, which goes to choice with a bankrupt plan, then the cribes remain unobstructed, as if to take the affected state voluntarily ready. At best, it could then be confiscated abruptly abroad, but no bankruptcy court or other institution will – if you can reach the 2. World War Ubelle "Cannon Boat Politics", in the strong creditor states such as coarse buddies to collect their demands with military resources, once explores – to ensure that the state-enhanced benefit in favor of the creders will be exploited.

After all, the lenders are then free to pretend no loans to the banknote date. As is the case of Greece, the sympathy of the partner countries will also be limited, so that that in the bankruptcy soon extreme exchange prefabricity immediately had unpleasant consequences, most of the national raw materials such as OL also have to be at the international market as the consumers, which is not Making yourself, buy on international market, choosing foreign currency. In domestic traffic, however, every Souveran State and therefore Greece is free to maintain the monetary traffic and the credit system with a new own preservation, central bank and cash cudistration.

Since the Greeks, as it looks, will have to be able to cope with the most hardest condition for years and also also Spaniards, Portuguese and Italians, it seems increasingly plausible that a majority of population rather risks the unknown consequences of a direct government plan, as the secured sampling of a rigorous savings – and thus shrinkage policy. But even though such a radical decision has arisen, so far, it was simply unthinkable that a state of the so-called first world rather than tackle with tax threats, hard fires and extensive sales of state-migrant to the financial crisis, despite international "help" voluntarily goes into the bankruptcy and the international cribes shows the long nose.

In how far the following distortions to the international financial market and the bankruptcy of the local banking system for an already marginalized majority taxation will be negatively listable negatively, in any case, for the election folk could not be sufficient. However, suggest that the Greeks were able to constantly finance thanks to their tourism revenues, at least the absolutely unavoidable import needs (and the considerable gold reserves of the Greek National Bank were sufficient for raw material accounts, until the consensus are then added in the summer). However, it would be hardly any more possible to introduce foreign branded products, at least for those who are not already significant EuroSestanden abroad or. have hoarded at home at home, so at least the "Are sufficient" For the time being not necessarily limited. The country’s sovereignty of its economic policy backed up and it is not even quite ruled out that autonomous control over monetary policy does not allow a kind of renovation faster, as an EU and IMF controlled austerity solution.

Consequences of an uncontrolled bankruptcy

For Europe and the global financial system, there are little doubt that an uncontrolled bankruptcy challenges highest risks. At the currently favored solution, however, all the classification should "voluntarily" take place. The banks and investors sitting in the bodies, which decide whether there is indeed a bankruptcy, will hide in front of such an explanation.

If the SOUVERAN decides against the creders, all credit derivatives were struggling, while at the same time the bonds of other weak eurozone states were allowed to break break. The resulting shock wave could then cause the collapse of one or more gross market participants. If one of the almost two dozen gross financial houses are affected, which together hold more than three quarters of all CDs, then the entire hedging system of the global banking system could collapse, which probably has at least so serious consequences, as the Lehmann bankruptcy of 2008. But as well, the financial markets could simply be able to overst over the agenda again to the agenda, only after some of the most common hysterical price breeding, no one today, no one has not happened.

When France’s stateprasident Nicolas Sarkozy insists at the end of the summit, but it insists that with ECB and the EFSF funds there are strong EU institutions who were willing to intervene and that Italy is not alone, suggesting some security that the market In any case, not so rapidly and maybe never will never return to the relation to the ratios before 2008 for European government bonds. Finally, the most important reason to buy these bonds to buy, until further notice. Because the "Real money investors who invest without leverage – so z. B. Investment funds, insurance or the "Are sufficient" -, Despite the low interest rate, these papers have just bought due to their high security – which had some legislators certainly mandatory, which must now be able to cope with the relevant losses.

Also to the banking sector, which, according to Bank for international payment balance, hold around 40 percent of the outstanding sovereign debt, the appetite was allowed to have been sustainably spoiled on dubious sovereign debt. Because they can always refinance these bonds, as long as no bankruptcy is to refinance in repo traffic with the central bank, due to high "Haicuts" but they are hardly useful in interbank traffic. In addition, they are always the risk of being caught by market price bouncing, but today they can no longer be excused, as all others have also been surprised by for impossible incidents.

Consequently, banks will hide, take papers in hand on which the suspicion of problems last. At least they had to demand – as well as the real-money investors – for that interest rates that correspond to the abusable credit risks. The price of these risks – ie the risk premium, the Z. B. Italy must pay against comparable German federal bonds – will now also reflect these significantly higher risks in the long term, at least not with no other EU measures to bring the market again the early serenity. Only today, how such measures could look like, especially as the power of the ECB, which was theoretically available short-term problems with its unrestricted frosting on the euro, by its opposite Banks of the US, Great Britain or Japan on Japan on the price stability Reduced mandate and the separation of public finances of Eurozonelander is disregarded by monetary policy.

There is still no precedent, but as close to Greece, the possibility of an uncontrolled bankruptcy sent by the people have come, was not so easy to expel the market psychology. In view of the ongoing sincerity in large parts of the economy in Europe, the demand for a government plan should certainly be obediently to the arsenal of populists, which then "the rich" and "the banks" promise on a government plan to the cashier and not "the people", WOFUR then even again the traditional Jewish hate instrumentalize love.

That the suffering prere is already considerable, the mass protests in the southern are barely doubt. But the situation is so outstanding that it seems to be no longer worse anyway, why should the Souveran then not put everything on a map and deny the printing debts? But even if that should never arrive, alone will stop potential lenders from engaging.

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